Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-06 08:47Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is facing dual challenges of declining asset-side returns and rigid liability-side costs, prompting a fundamental transformation in operational logic as it enters a new cycle of predetermined interest rate adjustments to 2.0% by 2025 [3][22]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Transformations - The insurance industry is undergoing a structural transformation due to the continuous decline in asset-side returns and the inflexible nature of liability-side costs, which is not merely a cyclical issue but a systemic challenge [3][22]. - The transition path involves reducing liability-side costs and enhancing investment-side returns, moving away from high-interest customer acquisition models towards floating yield products like dividend insurance [3][22]. - The "reporting and operation integration" policy and strict inspections are reshaping the channel ecosystem, pushing the sales model towards value orientation and leading the market into a new phase of high-quality development [3][22]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - As the capital market recovers, insurance capital's enthusiasm for equity investments has significantly increased, with a total investment in stocks and securities funds reaching 5.59 trillion yuan, accounting for over 14% of total fund utilization, marking a historical high [4][23]. - Experts suggest increasing equity allocation to enhance long-term returns, as domestic long-term capital allocation in equity has traditionally been low compared to international standards [4][23]. - The insurance industry is shifting towards a "low guarantee + high floating" product design, with dividend insurance and investment-linked insurance expected to gain significant market share [12][30]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Asset-Liability Management - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has emphasized the importance of enhancing asset-liability management capabilities within the insurance industry, which is crucial for the health of the industry and company operations [5][24]. - A new draft regulation on asset-liability management is set to be implemented by December 2025, aiming to strengthen regulatory oversight and improve the overall risk management capabilities of insurance companies [6][38]. - The insurance industry is expected to maintain a stable predetermined interest rate of 2.0% in 2026, with a focus on reducing short-term yield speculation and returning to the essence of risk protection [35][39]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Dynamics - The continuous decline in the predetermined interest rate research value reflects the dual pressures of the market interest rate environment and the insurance industry's asset-liability management [7][26]. - The insurance market is witnessing a significant shift towards dividend insurance, which now accounts for over one-third of the market share, indicating a profound restructuring of the industry's underlying logic [31][32]. - The long-term asset duration gap remains a challenge, with the average liability duration for life insurance at 16.3 years, necessitating a focus on overseas asset allocation to bridge this gap [33][34].