当下商品交易两条主线——“去美元”买黄金，“强安全”买金属

Core Viewpoint - The accumulation of macro risks in developed Western economies and the tense global geopolitical environment are reshaping the super cycle of commodities, with two clear trading lines emerging: "de-dollarization" of reserve asset replacement and accumulation of key metals based on "strong security" logic [1][23]. Group 1: Gold and Reserve Asset Replacement - Global central banks are accelerating the adjustment of reserve structures, reducing reliance on dollar assets and viewing gold as a core tool to hedge against sovereign currency credit risks [1][24]. - As of Q3 2025, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves is expected to decline to 56.92%, continuing a slow downward trend [3][24]. - In 2024, global central banks are projected to net add 1,089 tons of gold, marking three consecutive years of net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons [30][31]. Group 2: Key Metals and Strategic Accumulation - The trend of strengthening security is leading to a revaluation of specific metal assets, with countries urgently needing to stockpile strategic materials to ensure military supply [1][13]. - From January to November 2025, global base metal prices increased by 15%, with tungsten rising by 229%, cobalt by 120%, and copper by 42% [1][23]. - The demand for key metals such as tungsten, lithium, and cobalt is driven by military needs, with significant supply gaps emerging due to recent policies from the US and European allies [1][22]. Group 3: Investment Directions - Investors should focus on gold and related precious metals that possess independent value storage functions to address the instability of the monetary credit system [2][20]. - Attention should also be given to key metals closely related to military demand, which are less affected by the real estate cycle, to capture structural premiums brought by "strong security" [2][39].