華創證券：元旦假期白酒需求弱復甦 越臨近春節催化越足

Core Viewpoint - The demand for liquor during the New Year holiday was weak, with feedback from multiple regions indicating a year-on-year decline of over 20%, although there was slight improvement compared to November and December. The supply side is adjusting with lower targets from liquor companies, and channels are expected to further relieve inventory pressure. The overall demand for the Spring Festival is expected to decline in double digits, but the rate of decline is anticipated to narrow compared to the New Year holiday. High-end liquor prices are under pressure, particularly for Moutai, which is expected to continue facing marginal price pressure due to ongoing shipments and traditional channel arrivals. Looking ahead to 2026, liquor companies are shifting from passive responses to proactive adjustments, with opportunities arising after Moutai's prices stabilize [1][2][3][4][8]. Demand Analysis - The New Year demand was weak, with a year-on-year decline of over 20% reported in multiple regions, although there was slight month-on-month improvement from November and December. The industry is still in the off-season, and consumer gatherings were generally underwhelming. The estimated industry shipment volume during the New Year is expected to decline by over 10%, with significant reductions in business banquets and group purchases. High-end liquor prices have dropped by over 10%, while mid-range liquor prices have generally decreased by 5-10%. However, there are positive signs in mass consumption, particularly in regions like Sichuan and Anhui, where mass banquets and gatherings performed relatively well [2][3]. Supply Side Insights - On the supply side, liquor companies are lowering their targets, and channels are expected to further relieve inventory pressure. Many liquor companies have not met their initial collection targets for the year, leading to more conservative growth targets for 2026. The requirements for Spring Festival collections have been lowered, with most companies aiming for 30-40% collection rates. The shipment pace from liquor companies is slowing, with channels halting shipments when inventory exceeds a certain level, alleviating channel pressure [3][5]. Price Trends - High-end liquor prices are expected to remain under pressure, with Moutai's prices facing continued marginal pressure due to ongoing shipments and upcoming arrivals in traditional channels. The price of Wuliangye is expected to slightly decline, but this may stimulate sales. For mid-range liquor, prices are already at relatively low levels, and the channels are experiencing thinner profits, with expectations of stabilization at low levels during the Spring Festival [4][5]. Company Strategies - Moutai is advancing its market-oriented transformation in 2026, creating a pyramid product system and eliminating distribution policies to ease channel pressure. Wuliangye is focusing on maintaining market order and enhancing channel incentives, while also pushing for collection during the Spring Festival. Luzhou Laojiao is adjusting its product structure and increasing promotional efforts, with its high-end product prices maintaining around 830 yuan, although sales are declining in double digits. Fenjiu is enhancing regional breakthroughs for its premium products and focusing on key markets to improve sales rates [5][6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The pessimistic factors have been priced in, and as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to recover. Moutai is recommended due to its strong certainty and high dividend yield. The mass market liquor segment, particularly Gujing Gongjiu, is highlighted as a key recommendation due to recent price corrections. Attention is also drawn to Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao regarding their clearance rhythms, along with innovative products like Zhenjiu Lidu [8].