伦敦金呈上升趋势 美银预计黄金均价将达4538美元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold remains a key hedging tool for investment portfolios, with a projected average price of $4,538 per ounce by 2026 [2] - Supply constraints and rising costs are expected, with a 2% decline in North American gold mine production and an average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) rising by 3% to approximately $1,600 per ounce [2] - Investment demand is a crucial catalyst, with a mere 14% increase in investment demand potentially driving gold prices to $5,000 [2] Group 2 - Central banks are continuing to purchase gold, with their reserves exceeding U.S. Treasury holdings, but averaging only about 15% of total reserves [2] - A model suggests that increasing gold's share in reserves to around 30% could optimize reserve assets, indicating sustained central bank buying behavior [2] - The traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio is facing challenges, and allocating 20% to 30% in gold has proven to be an effective diversification strategy since 2020 [2] Group 3 - The current gold price is in a strong upward trend, maintaining above key support levels around $4,395 to $4,410 [3] - A pullback to the $4,450 to $4,460 range may provide further buying opportunities, with initial targets set at $4,495 to $4,500 [3] - If the price breaks above $4,500, it is expected to rise further to the $4,520 to $4,530 range, while a drop below $4,450 would invalidate the short-term upward trend [3]