“老登”向左，“小登”向右：泡泡玛特的分歧时刻

Core Viewpoint - The report by Bernstein predicts a significant decline in Bubble Mart's stock price due to potential sales drop and consumer interest decline in LABUBU, which they believe could lead to a vicious cycle affecting profitability and market performance [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Bernstein's conclusion about Bubble Mart's bubble is criticized as being overly simplistic and based on a misunderstanding of consumer behavior, as many buyers genuinely desire LABUBU products [2]. - The report misinterprets the importance of scarcity in Bubble Mart's business model, which relies more on market penetration than on artificial scarcity [3]. - The comparison to Beanie Babies is deemed inappropriate, as the consumer base and business models of Bubble Mart and Beanie Babies are fundamentally different [3]. Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - Bubble Mart's strategy focuses on direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, which allows for better control over pricing and distribution, contrasting with traditional models that rely on multiple layers of distribution [13]. - The company has successfully cultivated multiple IPs, with LABUBU becoming a leading product in just five years, showcasing its efficiency in creating popular items [8]. - The product strategy is clearly divided into regular and limited edition items, catering to different consumer segments and enhancing brand loyalty [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - A significant portion of Bubble Mart's consumers purchase products for emotional satisfaction and design rather than for investment purposes, indicating a healthier consumer base [5]. - The decline in search interest for LABUBU is interpreted as a sign of consumer transition from searching to purchasing, reflecting a solid user base with high repurchase rates [11]. - The operational adjustments made by Bubble Mart, such as optimizing store experiences, are aimed at enhancing customer satisfaction rather than indicating a decline in demand [11]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Market Perception - The recent stock price drop of 40% is attributed to broader market factors rather than a direct reflection of Bubble Mart's operational health [14]. - The market's tendency to apply traditional valuation metrics to a new business model like Bubble Mart's is seen as a misunderstanding of the company's unique value proposition [12][15]. - Historical parallels are drawn between Bubble Mart and Tesla, suggesting that misjudgments by analysts could lead to significant market opportunities for the company [16].