ZFX山海证券:大户增持筹码洗牌 BTC或迎来突破

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is showing strong bullish signals, with a notable divergence between the accumulation by Bitcoin whales and the exit of retail investors, indicating a potential new upward cycle [1][2]. Market Participant Structure - The "whales" and "sharks" holding between 10 to 10,000 BTC have been active, accumulating over 56,227 BTC since mid-December 2022, despite relatively stable price fluctuations [3]. - Retail investors are concerned about a potential "bull trap," leading to profit-taking, which contrasts with the actions of major funds and reduces upward resistance [3]. Market Supply Structure - Bitcoin has completed a significant consolidation phase within the price range of $87,000 to $94,000, with a notable restructuring of market supply, where the proportion of "heavy top" supply has decreased from 67% to 47%, indicating that profit-taking pressure is nearing exhaustion [3]. - Although there are signs of short squeezes in the futures market, the overall leverage remains at a healthy level [3]. Future Market Outlook - ZFX Shanhai Securities believes Bitcoin is in a solid bullish consolidation phase, with key resistance levels identified between $95,000 and $100,000, particularly around the $100,000 options expiry in January [4]. - The critical support area is identified between $88,000 and $90,000, and the dynamic interplay between whale accumulation and retail exits is expected to significantly increase the probability of market capitalization growth in the near future [4].