Moneta Markets外汇:金价2026年剑指4600美元

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a new historical record at the end of 2025, reflecting a robust gold market supported by structural factors. Although the growth rate may slow down in 2026, the overall upward trend is clear. Gold recorded its strongest annual performance since 1979 in 2025, and Moneta Markets expects a continuation of this bull market in 2026, with a target price range of $4,500 to $4,600 [1][2]. Market Trends - The next significant trend opportunity is leaning towards bullish, with a probability of gold prices increasing by 20% to 25% towards the $5,000 mark being much higher than a drop to $3,000. A solid structural support exists at the $3,600 to $3,700 level, providing a strong bottom for gold prices [3][4]. Debt and Inflation Impact - The global debt total has reached $340 trillion, with government debt accounting for over 30%, serving as a long-term driver for gold price increases. In an environment of persistent inflation and high long-term yields, gold's role as a core asset for hedging duration risk and currency depreciation is becoming increasingly irreplaceable [3][4]. Changes in Investment Strategies - The traditional "stock-bond hedge" model's failure has led to increased demand for gold. Investors are reassessing the 60/40 asset allocation ratio, significantly enhancing gold's strategic value in investment portfolios. In 2025, global gold ETF inflows exceeded 700 tons, with notable increases in SPDR Gold Shares holdings. Despite high gold prices, the proportion of global gold ETFs in total assets remains below 3%, far below the historical peak and the recommended allocation of 5% to 10%, indicating substantial room for institutional capital to increase [2][4]. Strategic Support Levels - Moneta Markets identifies $3,000 as a new strategic support level for gold prices. Despite potential short-term disturbances from a strong rebound in the U.S. economy that may boost the dollar and suppress Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, the extent of any price pullback will be limited due to heavy debt burdens and global fiscal pressures. The status of gold as a long-term safe-haven asset will be further solidified with the evolution of global trade patterns and monetary systems [4].