Mhmarkets迈汇:黄金牛市未竟 白银或爆发增长

Core Viewpoint - The volatility in global financial markets remains high as of January 6, 2026, with gold maintaining its status as a core safe-haven asset and a key source for investors to achieve excess returns (Alpha) [1][4] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The average price of gold is projected to remain high at $4,538 per ounce in 2026 according to leading industry analysis models [1][4] - The tightening situation in the gold mining industry is expected to worsen, with a forecasted 2% decline in production from 13 major North American gold miners, bringing output down to 19.2 million ounces [5] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) is anticipated to rise by 3% to around $1,600 per ounce, yet producers' profit outlook remains strong due to rising gold prices, with total EBITDA expected to increase by 41% to $65 billion in 2026 [5] Group 2: Silver Market Potential - The current gold-silver ratio of approximately 59 indicates that silver's upside potential has not been fully realized [2][5] - Historical analysis suggests that if the gold-silver ratio returns to the 2011 level of 32, silver prices could rise to $135, and if it mirrors the 1980 level of 14, prices could potentially exceed $309 [2][5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Despite market concerns about high gold prices, the end of the gold bull market will depend on the disappearance of fundamental drivers rather than price levels [6] - High-net-worth professional investors currently hold only 0.5% of their portfolios in gold, significantly below the reasonable level, suggesting that increasing gold holdings to 20% or even 30% is a more prudent strategy [6] - Central banks' ongoing gold purchasing trend is expected to continue into 2026, with an ideal average allocation in official reserves being 30%, up from the current 15% [6] Group 4: Future Projections - Gold is viewed as both a shield against extreme risks and a spear for enhancing investment portfolio performance, with increasing retail investment demand and institutional buying supporting a potential surge in gold prices towards the $5,000 mark [3][6]