今年首次成品油调价搁浅，但机构预计下次调价可能涨

Group 1 - The fuel costs for residents' driving and logistics transportation will remain unchanged in the next half month due to the decision to not adjust fuel prices in early January 2026 [1] - The average price of crude oil during the current pricing cycle is reported at $60.24 per barrel, with a slight increase of 0.76% compared to the previous cycle, indicating a potential price adjustment of around 30 yuan per ton, which is below the 50 yuan adjustment threshold [1] - The domestic fuel prices are anchored to global crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and weak supply-demand structures in the global oil market [1] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a daily surplus of crude oil in the market ranging from 3.8 million to 4.09 million barrels for the year, accounting for 4% of global demand, establishing a supply surplus as the main market trend [2] - OPEC+ has announced that it will maintain its production plan established in November 2025 and will continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026 [2] - The next retail fuel price adjustment window will open on January 20, 2026, with a high probability of price increases due to ongoing supply risks from geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions [3] Group 3 - The demand for oil is expected to be supported by the festive atmosphere in the West and the cold winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere [4]