阶段性分化再现！玉米后市怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - Corn spot prices have shown a slight upward trend at the end of the year, driven by farmers' reluctance to sell and slow purchasing progress by traders, while demand remains rigid due to deep processing enterprises maintaining inventory levels [3][10]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Corn prices in Northeast China have ended their sideways movement, with mixed price changes from deep processing enterprises [4][11]. - The supply side shows that farmers are still reluctant to sell, leading to slow increases in market supply, which supports price stability in the short term [4][11]. - The port market is experiencing a divergence, with Northern ports showing stable to strong prices, while the Pearl River Delta is relatively weak [4][11]. Group 2: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The State Grain Trade Center announced a wheat auction scheduled for January 7, 2026, which may negatively impact corn prices as increased wheat supply could lead to downward pressure on wheat prices [5][12]. - As of now, over 200 million tons of autumn grain have been purchased nationwide, with corn purchases reaching 117 million tons, indicating a significant increase compared to previous years [5][12]. - The market is advised to closely monitor the progress of wheat auctions and the actual impact on corn prices, as well as the selling pace of farmers [5][12]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - Deep processing enterprises are accumulating inventory, while feed enterprises are slightly reducing their stock levels, indicating a weak overall demand [6][13]. - The market is expected to maintain stable corn prices in the short term, but long-term trends will depend on the pace of replenishment and farmers' selling attitudes as the Spring Festival approaches [6][13].