50万亿存款“洪流”将至，四大去向引关注，谁能接住这场“活水”？

Core Insights - The total amount of deposits maturing in 2026 is estimated to be around 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 10 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [1][6] - The maturing deposits will primarily flow into four directions: repaying existing mortgages, investing in the stock market, purchasing wealth management products, and renewing deposits at lower interest rates [8][9] Deposit Maturity Overview - The estimated maturity scale for deposits over one year is approximately 50 trillion yuan, with 20 trillion yuan expected for both 2-year and 3-year deposits, and around 5-6 trillion yuan for 5-year deposits [6][8] - The largest portion of maturing deposits will come from state-owned banks, estimated at 30-40 trillion yuan, followed by joint-stock banks at 10-13 trillion yuan, and rural commercial banks at 5-7 trillion yuan [6][8] Market Dynamics - The first quarter of the year is expected to see the highest volume of maturing deposits due to banks' "opening red" demand, with approximately 30 trillion yuan maturing in the first half of the year and over 20 trillion yuan in the second half [6][8] - The current low interest rate environment has led to a "migration" of deposits, with a significant portion of funds expected to move from traditional savings to other investment avenues [3][9] Investment Trends - The migration of deposits is still in its early stages, with expectations that it will strengthen in 2026 as the interest rate environment reaches a critical threshold [9][10] - There is a potential for at least 9.4 trillion yuan of excess savings to enter the stock market, indicating a significant opportunity for investment [8][10] Future Outlook - The trend of deposit migration, particularly among high-net-worth individuals, is anticipated to continue, alongside increased foreign capital entering the market [11]