Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global economy in 2026 is facing three ongoing developments: the deepening impact of geopolitical stability in the East and instability in the West, the re-evaluation of China's industrial strength, and the exploration of breaking deflation [2][46][48] - The first ongoing development is the deepening of the devaluation of the US dollar, influenced by geopolitical factors and the uncertainty of US policies, with the dollar index having depreciated nearly 10% in 2025 [11][23][25] - The second ongoing development is the re-recognition of China's industrial strength, particularly in AI-related hardware and software applications, domestic computing power substitution, and the continued upgrading and internationalization of advanced manufacturing [12][57] Group 2 - The third ongoing development focuses on the exploration of breaking deflation, with an emphasis on the precise implementation of policies, including a continuation of subsidies for consumption and support for the real estate sector [3][60][62] - The expected scale of subsidies for consumption in 2026 is projected to be around 300 billion RMB, maintaining the level of 2025, with a greater focus on technology application scenarios [17][62][64] - The real estate sector is expected to see trials in inventory reduction and mortgage subsidies as part of the broader strategy to alleviate pressures in the housing market [19][66] Group 3 - The stock market outlook for 2026 remains positive, with a strong start indicated by the recent performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting sustained market activity [27][71][75] - The active IPO market in Hong Kong, particularly for companies in the GPU and AI sectors, is seen as a significant factor in attracting global capital back to the Chinese stock market [29][75][78] - The strengthening of the RMB against the USD is viewed as a major benefit for overseas investors in Chinese stocks, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [37][82][87]
开门红能否持续？大摩新年首场闭门会：接下来几个月，应可预见到外资对中国股票资产的持续配置
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-06 11:57