表面对委内瑞拉变局波澜不惊 华尔街却已嗅到2026年的风险气息

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street bulls need several favorable factors to achieve double-digit returns for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, amid ongoing trade tensions, economic fatigue, and geopolitical risks [1][6]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows signs of fatigue despite three interest rate cuts, with rates remaining high [1][9]. - Investors may be overly optimistic about the Federal Reserve's potential for two more rate cuts this year, given persistent inflation [9][10]. Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.6% following the U.S. military action in Venezuela, while oil prices increased slightly [6][11]. - Despite the geopolitical event, the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index remains low, below 16, indicating a lack of immediate market concern [6][11]. Investor Sentiment - After an approximately 80% increase in the stock market over three years, investors have become numb to risks, viewing market pullbacks as buying opportunities [8][9]. - A Bloomberg survey of 21 forecasters predicts an average increase of about 9% for the stock market in 2026, with no predictions of a decline [9]. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine war and instability in Iran and Southeast Asia, contribute to market uncertainty [4][9]. - The recent military action in Venezuela serves as a reminder that unforeseen risks can emerge, potentially leading to a "sharp risk aversion phase" in the market [10][11]. Strategic Recommendations - Analysts suggest that investors should prepare for market volatility by favoring high-quality assets [10].