12月酒类股热点研报追踪 | 磨底收官，曙光初现2026

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a critical phase of bottoming out after experiencing policy shocks and rapid price adjustments in 2025, with market consensus indicating that while terminal demand remains weak, channel inventory and corporate report pressures are accelerating towards resolution, led by market-driven adjustments from leading liquor companies [2][11]. Market Dynamics - The focus is shifting from "when will it bottom out" to "how to recover," with differentiation and structural optimization becoming the main themes for the next phase [3][12]. - Multiple institutions believe the most intense adjustment phase for the industry may have passed, and the current period is one of building a new equilibrium [4][12]. - Initial signs of price and inventory stabilization are emerging, with major product prices showing a slowing decline after a general downturn [4][12]. - Channel inventory pressure has peaked, with a noted reduction in inventory levels after reaching a high point in Q3 2025, indicating a self-regulating market [4][12]. - The performance pressure on liquor companies is being released, creating conditions for recovery, as the third quarter has become a concentrated period for performance release [4][12]. Valuation Insights - The valuation of the liquor sector is at historical lows, with market expectations significantly compressed, indicating that after a prolonged adjustment, the sector's valuation attractiveness is becoming evident [4][13]. - Current market conditions reflect a pessimistic outlook, with both valuation and holdings at historical lows, suggesting a solid safety margin for the sector [13]. Leadership and Transformation - Leading companies are demonstrating stronger strategic determination and adaptability during this adjustment, indicating a clear transformation path for the industry [5][14]. - Key initiatives include deepening market-oriented reforms in marketing systems, as exemplified by Kweichow Moutai's consumer-centric approach to stabilize pricing and enhance channel health [5][14]. - Product matrix optimization is being pursued to enhance operational resilience, with Moutai establishing a mature product structure to match precise demand [5][14]. - The competitive focus is shifting towards comprehensive capability comparisons, with an emphasis on brand, organization, channel, and marketing competition [5][14]. Future Outlook for 2026 - Brokerages are cautiously optimistic about 2026, anticipating a weak recovery from a low base, though the process will not be immediate [6][15]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is seen as a critical test for market demand, with expectations of resilience in sales during this period [6][15]. - Systemic recovery in the industry will require support from macroeconomic conditions and consumer confidence, with a gradual restoration of demand anticipated [6][15]. - A "V-shaped" rebound is unlikely, with increasing internal structural differentiation expected, as leading companies with comprehensive advantages are projected to perform significantly better than those still in adjustment [6][15].