Mexico freight may be US trucking markets biggest stabilizer in 2026, experts say

Core Insights - U.S.–Mexico cross-border freight is expected to be a stabilizing factor in North American logistics for 2026, according to Uber Freight executives [1] - Despite challenges in the broader U.S. trucking market, sustained cross-border demand is influencing how shippers and carriers prepare for the upcoming year [2] Cross-Border Trade Dynamics - There has been a 15% increase in exports from Mexico to the U.S., indicating that customers are stabilizing their imports and adapting to new tariff conditions [3] Market Conditions - The U.S. trucking market is tightening due to sustained carrier exits and historically low orders for tractors and trailers, with spot rates recently increasing by over 10% [4] - Spot rates are currently near operating costs on a per-mile basis, but carriers are still running below break-even on loaded miles due to approximately 15% of miles being non-revenue-generating [5] Capacity and Fleet Management - Tractor and trailer orders are down by double digits year-over-year, indicating limited near-term fleet expansion and contributing to tighter market conditions during peak periods [6] - The current peak season is tighter than the previous year, and uncertainty about market changes in the upcoming year suggests that shippers should adopt a scenario planning approach rather than relying on a single forecast [7]