长债利率开年上破2.3%，2026年还有哪些担忧？

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to start high in 2026, with a forecast of a decline followed by an increase in yields throughout the year [1][5] - The 10-year bond yield reached a new high of 1.88% on January 6, 2026, while the 30-year bond yield surpassed 2.3%, hitting 2.315% [1][3] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is weak due to limited monetary easing expectations and increased supply pressure [1][3] Group 2 - In 2025, the bond market experienced a significant decline, with the 10-year bond futures down 0.95% and the 30-year futures down 5.62% by the end of the year [2] - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased from 1.79% in early November to 1.85% by year-end, while the 30-year bond yield rose from 2.075% to 2.265% [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported a net liquidity injection of 50 billion yuan through government bond transactions in December 2025, which was below market expectations [3][4] Group 3 - Analysts highlight four main factors affecting the bond market in 2026: fundamentals, liquidity, bond supply, and institutional behavior [5] - The government bond issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be similar to that of 2025, with a net supply of 831.1 billion yuan and a total issuance of 1.73 trillion yuan [5][6] - The demand side remains weak, with concerns about the impact of new public fund sales regulations and potential withdrawals of funds from the market [6][7] Group 4 - The PBOC's bond buying strategy is currently cautious, with a focus on liquidity management rather than aggressive purchases, which may limit the downward pressure on bond yields [4][6] - As the year progresses, inflation readings are expected to rise, potentially leading to increased unfavorable factors for the bond market and a rebound in interest rates after reaching a low [7]