外资展望2026年全球市场：风险资产有望领先，分散配置是关键

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for broader asset allocation strategies to navigate uncertainties in the market, particularly as the global economy transitions into a new phase of asset pricing logic in 2026 [1] - Standard Chartered Bank's report indicates that risk assets are expected to outperform overall in 2026, driven by factors such as the rising probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy and easing global trade tensions [2][3] - The report highlights that while the overall environment for risk assets is favorable, significant performance disparities among different markets and asset classes are anticipated [3] Group 2 - From a macroeconomic perspective, the global economy is expected to continue its moderate recovery in 2026, with the US economy not likely to experience a hard landing, supported by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] - The report suggests that the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies among major economies is likely to improve, providing new growth momentum in the medium to long term [2] - In terms of asset allocation, the recommendation is to overweight equities while maintaining core positions in bonds, with a particular focus on US and Asian markets excluding Japan [3][4] Group 3 - The report indicates that the technology sector remains a focal point for investment, with a shift in investment logic from long-term narratives to a focus on current earnings certainty [4] - In the bond market, the recommendation is to focus on government bonds as a stabilizing core, favoring emerging market government bonds due to expected moderate inflation and a dovish monetary policy outlook [4] - The report also notes that the dollar is under pressure, with expectations of a weakening dollar impacting investment strategies, while gold is highlighted as a key hedging tool with a mid-term target price of $4,800 per ounce [5][6]