中能观察｜追问委内瑞拉剧变：石油背后，美国有何图谋？

Core Viewpoint - The military action by the U.S. against Venezuela did not significantly impact the global oil market, highlighting deeper market dynamics and the complexities behind U.S. intentions [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the U.S. military action on January 3, 2026, Brent crude oil prices only slightly decreased to $60.80 per barrel on January 4, with a minor recovery the next day, indicating a lack of panic typically associated with geopolitical conflicts [1]. - Venezuela's oil production is currently below 1 million barrels per day, accounting for only 1% of global output, due to long-term sanctions and a struggling oil industry [3][4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a global oil supply surplus of 3.85 million barrels per day in 2026, which is a significant factor keeping oil prices stable [4]. Group 2: U.S. Strategic Intentions - The U.S. aims to control Venezuelan oil resources to benefit its refining industry, as Venezuela's heavy crude oil complements U.S. refining capabilities [10]. - The U.S. strategy is part of a broader "Western Hemisphere First" approach, aiming to reinforce its dominance in the region and maintain the dollar's status in global commodity trade [11][12]. - The U.S. seeks to attract manufacturing back by controlling oil supply, which could lower energy costs and provide economic benefits [12]. Group 3: Challenges to U.S. Plans - There are significant challenges in U.S. intentions, including the gap between willingness and actual investment capabilities, as companies are hesitant to invest in Venezuela due to political and economic uncertainties [13]. - High political and security risks are present, as the transition of power in Venezuela could lead to instability, making long-term investments risky [13]. - The global shift towards energy transition and the trend of "de-dollarization" pose fundamental obstacles to U.S. oil hegemony [14].