价格“内卷”！实探沪深写字楼市场

Core Insights - The vacancy rate of office buildings in first-tier cities has become a significant concern in the commercial real estate sector, facing challenges and transformation pressures [1] - Experts suggest addressing the vacancy issue by managing "increment" and revitalizing "stock" [1] Vacancy Rates - The vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen is reported to be between 19% and 30% as of Q3 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2] - In Shanghai, the vacancy rate stands at 23.5% as of Q3 2025, with significant price reductions observed in various districts [3] - In the Huaxin area, despite a strong logistics industry presence, office rental prices have dropped significantly, with rates expected to fall to 1.5 yuan per square meter by 2026 [3][4] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with new office buildings entering the market at lower prices, forcing existing operators to reduce their rates [2][4] - A notable example includes a high-end office complex in the Jing'an Temple area, which has seen its vacancy rate approach 80% and rental prices drop from 10 yuan to 5 yuan per square meter [4] Supply and Demand Imbalance - The net absorption of Grade A office space in first-tier cities is projected to be approximately 117.5 million square meters in 2025, a significant decrease from 334.2 million square meters in 2021, highlighting a supply-demand imbalance [5] - The underlying reasons for this imbalance include China's industrial structure, which favors manufacturing over services, while office buildings primarily cater to high-end service industries [5] Recommendations for Improvement - To address the oversupply of office space, experts recommend stricter evaluations for new projects and exploring alternative uses for planned but unbuilt projects, such as converting them into schools or healthcare facilities [6] - Revitalizing existing stock through initiatives like "commercial to rental" and "commercial to cultural" conversions is also suggested, alongside simplifying approval processes [6] - The Shenzhen government has introduced policies allowing the conversion of underutilized non-residential properties into affordable rental housing, providing a potential solution to the supply issue [6] - Enhancing demand through industrial upgrades and improving the service sector's capabilities is essential, requiring a comprehensive approach to attract modern service enterprises [6]