石油变局：中美如何应对委内瑞拉之变？

Group 1 - The geopolitical shift caused by the U.S. control over Venezuela's oil industry is expected to significantly impact global energy dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [1][3] - The U.S. has a vested interest in Venezuelan oil due to its heavy reliance on heavy sour crude, with nearly 70% of U.S. refining capacity dependent on this type of oil, which Venezuela possesses in abundance [3] - Controlling Venezuela's oil resources would enhance the U.S.'s leverage in negotiations with Saudi Arabia and Russia, while also affecting Europe's energy choices, given the EU's ongoing dependence on Russian oil [3] Group 2 - China's direct exposure to the Venezuelan oil market has diminished, with imports dropping to approximately 149,000 tons in 2024, accounting for only 0.27% of total imports, and further declining to 0.07% in the first eleven months of 2025 [5] - Despite reduced oil imports, China has established itself as a key strategic partner of Venezuela through a "oil-for-loans" model since 2007, which may be threatened by U.S. actions [5] - China's deep-rooted influence in Venezuela makes it challenging for the U.S. to completely undermine its position, emphasizing the importance of diversified energy security strategies [5]