报价试探性上涨，需求响应冷淡！供应收缩与高库存博弈下僵持格局！焦炭有五轮降价预期

Market Overview - The thermal coal market is characterized by a stalemate between supply-side price support and weak demand response, with supply gradually recovering and port inventories decreasing, but actual transactions remain light due to high inventory levels at power plants and weak procurement from non-electric sectors [1][2][4] Supply Side - Main production areas are gradually resuming operations, with prices showing differentiation; some high-quality coal mines have raised prices by 5-10 yuan/ton due to slight demand recovery, while overall market activity remains low [2] - Port inventories have decreased to 28.37 million tons, down 120,000 tons day-on-day, with trade merchants reluctant to sell at low prices due to ongoing cost disadvantages, particularly for low-sulfur coal types [3] Demand Side - Daily coal consumption at power plants has slightly increased to 4.515 million tons, up 159,000 tons, but total inventory remains high at 110 million tons, limiting the need for large-scale procurement [4] - Non-electric sector demand is weak, with limited increases in coal usage from industries like cement and chemicals, leading to a cautious procurement stance [4] - Weather conditions are expected to bring some marginal increases in consumption, but overall temperatures are close to seasonal averages, limiting significant spikes in coal usage [4] Import Coal - Indonesian coal prices have risen to FOB $49-50 per ton due to export restrictions, while Australian coal prices are at FOB $77-78 per ton, with high shipping costs narrowing the price gap with domestic coal [5][6] - The terminal's acceptance of high-priced imported coal is low, with procurement focused on future contracts [7] Market Dynamics and Outlook - The current core contradiction in the market is between expectations of supply contraction and the reality of high inventories, with structural shortages in low-sulfur coal types but difficulties in trading ordinary coal types [8] - The market is in a phase of "weak reality and strong expectations," with no strong drivers to break the current balance; short-term coal prices are expected to remain volatile with limited upward movement until inventories decrease significantly [9]