降准降息可期！央行2026年政策定调

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has outlined seven key priorities for 2026, focusing on monetary policy implementation, financial services for the real economy, risk prevention, and financial reform and opening up [1][8]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, emphasizing high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as core considerations [1][9]. - The monetary policy will have two main directions: total policy and structural policy, with a focus on maintaining ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions [1][9]. - Experts suggest that the PBOC's approach will balance overall adjustment and structural optimization, with the RMB expected to maintain a mild appreciation trend [1][2]. Structural Policies - Structural policies will aim to provide targeted support to key areas, enhancing the financial service framework and improving evaluation systems [2][10]. - The PBOC plans to optimize the use of various structural monetary policy tools, which will likely increase in volume while operational interest rates may be adjusted downward [2][10]. Exchange Rate Management - The RMB has shown a strong recovery, with the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate breaking 6.97 for the first time in two and a half years [3][11]. - The PBOC aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level while preventing excessive fluctuations [3][11]. - Analysts predict that the RMB may appreciate moderately in 2026, supported by a favorable external environment and a weak USD trend [3][12]. Non-Bank Financial Institutions - The PBOC is prioritizing the resolution of financial risks in key areas, including the establishment of mechanisms to provide liquidity support to non-bank financial institutions under specific scenarios [6][13]. - The proposed liquidity support mechanisms are seen as a proactive response to potential systemic risks and aim to enhance the financial stability framework [6][13]. - Recommendations for the design of these mechanisms include creating a tiered liquidity support system and developing a diverse collateral framework [7][14].