预计1月豆粕现货均价环比持平 月内或先抑后扬

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal prices are expected to stabilize in January 2026 after a slight increase in December 2025, influenced by government auctions and customs policies [1][3]. Price Trends - In December 2025, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal was 3090 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton (0.98%) month-on-month, and up 190 yuan/ton (6.55%) year-on-year [1]. - The domestic soybean meal spot basis as of December 31 was 340 yuan/ton, a significant increase from 35 yuan/ton on December 1 [1]. Supply Factors - Soybean supply is expected to decrease seasonally, with forecasts indicating imports of 748 million tons in January, 520 million tons in February, and 530 million tons in March 2026 [3]. - Domestic soybean inventories were high at 638.7 million tons, with soybean meal stocks at 111.9 million tons, both above historical averages [3]. - The state reserve's auction of imported soybeans is expected to resume, potentially alleviating supply pressures [3]. Demand Factors - The demand for soybean meal is supported by the upcoming Spring Festival, as livestock farming enters a concentrated fattening period [4]. - Feed manufacturers are expected to increase their positions due to low contract inventories, which may boost demand for soybean meal [4]. Market Dynamics - The interplay of supply and demand factors is expected to create volatility in soybean meal prices, with a forecast of a month-on-month stabilization but a potential initial decline followed by a rise in January [4].