大摩：市场低估美股牛市 六大催化剂将点燃风险偏好

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's top strategist Michael Wilson leads a team that believes market consensus is significantly underestimating multiple bullish catalysts that will positively impact risk appetite and valuations as the market approaches 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley sets a target for the S&P 500 index at 7800 points by the end of 2026, indicating a broad-based stock market bull market driven by a rolling recovery [2] - The firm anticipates that the leadership in the U.S. stock market will expand from large-cap tech stocks benefiting from AI to include mid-cap and cyclical core industries [2][6] - The current stock market is viewed as being at the beginning of a new earnings cycle and structural bull market, with cyclical stocks expected to outperform past averages [2][6] Group 2: Key Catalysts - Earnings growth trajectory is projected to reach a high of 15-20% by late 2026, driven by declining expense growth and improved pricing power [3] - Regulatory easing is expected to benefit the financial sector, with significant releases in bank capital productivity anticipated from finalized eSLR rules [3] - Monetary policy is projected to see further interest rate cuts in early 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds monthly, enhancing market liquidity [3] Group 3: Economic Factors - The ISM cycle indicates a rebound in U.S. manufacturing activity, supported by low interest rates and a broadening of earnings upgrades [4] - Consumer spending is shifting from services to goods, with the "Big and Beautiful" Act expected to increase U.S. personal income by approximately $65 billion in 2026 [4] - A weaker dollar and low gasoline prices are expected to support overall earnings upgrades for the S&P 500 [4] Group 4: Economic Environment - The U.S. economy is anticipated to experience a "Goldilocks" scenario, characterized by moderate growth and stable inflation, as various economic policies take effect [5] - Morgan Stanley defines the current phase as a "rolling recovery," with a return to a typical early-cycle environment marked by improved corporate profitability and investment [6] - The firm recommends an investment strategy of overweighting cyclical sectors while underweighting defensive sectors, suggesting a focus on financials, industrials, healthcare, and discretionary consumption [6]