摩根士丹利预计到2026年第四季度金价将达到每盎司4800美元

Group 1: Gold Market - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 of this year, surpassing last year's record high [1][7] - Key factors driving the increase in gold prices include declining interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and purchases by central banks and funds [1][7] - On December 26, gold prices hit a historical high of $4,549.71 per ounce, marking a 64% increase for the entire year of 2025, the best annual performance since 1979 [1][7] Group 2: Silver Market - The silver supply gap is expected to peak in 2025 [8] - Spot silver is projected to soar by 147% in 2025, achieving the strongest annual growth due to rising industrial and investor demand, along with structural market gaps [9] Group 3: Base Metals - Among base metals, aluminum and copper are favored due to supply challenges and increasing demand [10] - Global aluminum supply is restricted outside of Indonesia, and rising Midwest premiums indicate a potential recovery in U.S. purchasing behavior [10] - Increased copper imports in the U.S. are causing supply tightness in other markets, with significant supply disruptions expected to continue into 2026 [10] Group 4: Nickel Market - The nickel market is strengthening due to supply disruption risks from Indonesia, although much of this risk may have already been priced in [12] - Nickel futures rose by 5.8% to $17,980 per ton, reaching the highest level since October 8, 2024 [6][13]