Is Barrick Mining Stock Worth Buying After a 195% Surge in a Year?

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation's shares have surged 195.1% over the past year, primarily due to record gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][7]. Performance Comparison - Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 139.6% and the S&P 500's rise of 16.9% in the same period [2]. - Among peers, Newmont Corporation, Kinross Gold Corporation, and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited have seen increases of 174.5%, 200.7%, and 120.5%, respectively [2]. Stock Technicals - Barrick's stock broke above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on May 30, 2025, and is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend [5]. - The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since April 9, 2025, suggesting a bullish trend [5]. Key Projects - Barrick is advancing major gold and copper projects, including Goldrush, Fourmile, Lumwana, and Reko Diq, which are expected to significantly boost production [10]. - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second phase [11]. - The Lumwana Super Pit Expansion Project is expected to deliver 240,000 tons of copper production annually [12]. Financial Position - Barrick has a strong liquidity position with around $5 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of Q3 2025, and generated operating cash flows of approximately $2.4 billion, up 105% year over year [13]. - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases, with a new share repurchase program authorized for up to $1 billion [14]. Dividend and Valuation - Barrick offers a dividend yield of 1.6% with a payout ratio of 32%, indicating sustainability [15]. - The stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 12.84X, which is a discount to the industry average of 13.47X [23]. Earnings Outlook - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 indicating year-over-year increases of 79.4% and 51.4%, respectively [22]. Production Challenges - Barrick faces challenges with higher production costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by approximately 3% and 2% year over year, respectively [19]. - The company expects attributable gold production to decline to 3.15-3.5 million ounces for 2025, down from 3.91 million ounces in 2024 [21].