收藏级卡牌龙头Suplay冲刺港股：背靠米哈游，IPO前夜最大IP授权到期

Core Viewpoint - Suplay Inc. is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, leveraging partnerships with well-known IPs like "Genshin Impact" and "Harry Potter" to establish itself in the collectible card market, but faces significant risks due to reliance on licensed IPs and the expiration of key licensing agreements [1][3][15]. Company Overview - Suplay was founded in 2019 and initially focused on blind box sales through a WeChat mini-program, later expanding into collectible cards and toys [2]. - The company has completed five rounds of financing, with a post-money valuation of approximately $100 million as of July 2025, a 20-fold increase from its initial valuation of $5 million in 2019 [2]. Financial Performance - Suplay's revenue has shown consistent growth, with reported revenues of 146 million RMB, 281 million RMB, and 283 million RMB for the years 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025, respectively [7][8]. - The net profit for the same periods was 2.95 million RMB, 49.12 million RMB, and 37.07 million RMB, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7][8]. Market Position - Suplay ranks first in the Chinese collectible non-battle card market by GMV for 2024, and is the only Chinese brand among the top five global collectible non-battle card brands [6]. - The company has a high dependency on licensed IPs, with revenue from self-owned IPs dropping from 40.6% in 2023 to just 4.1% in the first three quarters of 2025 [13][14]. Product Segmentation - Suplay's business is divided into collectible products and consumer products, with collectible products now accounting for 70% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, up from 32.9% in 2023 [12]. - The company has three self-owned IPs and 22 licensed IPs, with a significant focus on developing products based on these IPs [12]. Licensing and Revenue Risks - The company faces structural risks due to its heavy reliance on licensed IPs, with the largest single licensed IP contributing 28.4% of revenue in 2023 [15]. - The licensing agreement for the largest revenue-generating IP has expired, and ongoing negotiations for renewal introduce uncertainty regarding future revenue [15].