AMAT Stock Rises 114% From Its 52-Week Low: Time to Hold or Fold?

Core Insights - Applied Materials (AMAT) stock has increased by 114.1% since its 52-week low of $123.7 in early April 2025, and has surged 59.9% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Electronics - Semiconductors industry's return of 37.6% [1][9] Demand and Growth - The demand for Applied Materials' wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) is rising due to the increasing use of semiconductors in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, with leading-edge foundry/logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging identified as the fastest-growing areas in the WFE market [4][6] - AMAT specializes in advanced technologies such as Gate-All-Around transistors at 2nm and below, which are essential for manufacturing next-generation semiconductor chips, and recent product launches are expected to contribute to growth [5][6] - The advanced packaging business, currently valued at $1.5 billion, is projected to double to $3 billion in the coming years, driven by high bandwidth memory (HBM) demand and next-generation packaging architectures [7] Financial Performance and Projections - AMAT's revenue from leading-edge customers in DRAM grew by over 50% in 2025, and this trend is expected to continue [6] - The company has restructured its pricing program, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to gross margin expansion in the upcoming fiscal year, allowing for increased R&D investments [8] - Zacks Consensus Estimates for AMAT's earnings per share (EPS) for the first and second quarters of fiscal 2026 are $2.21 and $2.25, indicating year-over-year declines of 7.1% and 5.8%, respectively [15][17] Competitive Landscape - AMAT faces challenges from U.S.-China tensions and export restrictions on semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which are impacting sales and growth outlook, particularly in the Chinese market [11] - The broader semiconductor market is recovering, but memory markets, including DRAM and NAND, remain weak, with only a gradual recovery expected in 2025 [12] - Rising competition from companies like KLA Corp., Lam Research, and ASML Holding is prompting AMAT to increase sales, marketing, and R&D costs to maintain its competitive edge [15] Stock Performance and Recommendation - AMAT's stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [10] - Despite strong AI-driven momentum and expanding margins, export restrictions and competitive pressures limit near-term upside, leading to a recommendation for investors to hold the stock [18]