磷酸铁锂行业以“减”稳价以“扩”破局

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is experiencing simultaneous "production cuts" and "capacity expansions" as companies respond to structural contradictions in the market [1][3] - Recent negotiations for the new year's pricing have made substantial progress, with major producers discussing processing fee increases of 1,000 yuan per ton [1][4] - The industry is transitioning from a competition model focused on scale to one centered on technology and performance, indicating a shift towards "value competition" [1][3] Production Cuts and Price Stabilization - A wave of production cuts began in late December 2025, with five leading companies announcing maintenance plans that will reduce output for about a month starting January 2026 [2] - By the end of 2025, China's usable LFP capacity reached 6.399 million tons per year, an increase of 1.53 million tons compared to 2024 [2] - The concentrated maintenance actions are a response to rising raw material costs, particularly lithium carbonate, which have led to significant cost pressures and operational losses in the industry [3][6] Pricing Negotiations and Raw Material Supply - In addition to processing fee negotiations, discussions are ongoing regarding the settlement of core raw material prices, with proposals for customers to supply lithium carbonate independently to mitigate price volatility [4] - For customers unable to self-supply, pricing will be linked to futures markets for greater transparency [4] Capacity Expansion and High-End Market Focus - Despite production cuts, leading companies are actively expanding high-end production capacities to capture market share in the growing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage [6][7] - For instance, Fujian Precision Engineering plans to invest 6 billion yuan in a new high-end LFP project with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons [6] - Longpan Technology is also advancing multiple expansion plans, including a 2 billion yuan investment in high-performance lithium battery materials [7][8] Strategic Management and Market Positioning - Companies are focusing on upgrading production processes and increasing capacity to meet the demands of top-tier clients while managing inventory and production cycles effectively [8] - The dual strategy of reducing production to stabilize prices while simultaneously investing in high-end capacity is seen as a proactive approach to navigate the current market challenges [8]