美联储巴尔金：利率需“精细调整” 2026年经济前景审慎乐观

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Richmond President Thomas Barkin emphasizes the need for a "fine-tuning" strategy in future monetary policy due to uncertainties surrounding inflation and employment targets [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Current policy interest rates are in a neutral range, but decisions will heavily rely on subsequent economic data without pre-setting a direction [1] - Despite a significant decline in U.S. inflation rates from previous highs, they remain above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [1] Group 2: Employment and Economic Risks - The unemployment rate remains low, but policymakers are cautious about further deterioration in the labor market [1] - Barkin warns of the "bear market" risk, highlighting the need to control inflation without triggering a deep economic contraction [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - In assessing the economic performance for 2025, Barkin acknowledges overall resilience but points out structural concerns, such as demand and job growth being overly concentrated in a few sectors, which may weaken the breadth and sustainability of recovery [1] - For 2026, Barkin expresses cautious optimism, suggesting that uncertainties that troubled the market last year are likely to dissipate, potentially boosting consumer and business confidence [1] - He mentions that tax reforms, regulatory easing, and potential interest rate cuts could support economic growth this year [1]