金银狂飙，原油基金却“按兵不动”？原因在这里

Core Viewpoint - The performance of oil funds has been lackluster compared to the significant gains seen in gold and silver funds, raising questions about when oil funds will rebound [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance - In 2025, commodity fund performance has shown divergence, with the Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF leading with over 130% gains, while multiple gold funds have increased by over 50% [1][6]. - Conversely, several oil funds have reported losses exceeding 5%, with three oil funds experiencing losses over 10%, the largest being E Fund Oil with a loss of over 13% [5][6]. Group 2: Oil Price Trends - Over the past year, gold and silver prices have reached new highs, while international oil prices have remained under pressure, fluctuating between $50 and $80 per barrel, with the latest price at $63.12 per barrel [3][4]. - The oil market is currently characterized by a weak state, primarily influenced by expectations of oversupply, as OPEC and emerging oil-producing countries have increased production, coupled with high U.S. shale oil output [9][10]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the current oil market is in a bottoming phase, with the potential for a rebound if U.S. demand and economic growth accelerate alongside global industrial recovery [9][10]. - Long-term investment in oil funds may yield substantial returns if viewed through a 10 to 20-year horizon, although uncertainties regarding future demand due to energy revolutions exist [10].