ServiceNow Drops 30% in a Year: Buy, Sell or Hold the NOW Stock?

Core Insights - ServiceNow (NOW) shares have decreased by 29.9% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 25.1% and the Zacks Computers IT Services industry's decline of 19.1% [1][7] - The decline is attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment and a slowdown in subscription revenue growth [1][7] - The company's fourth-quarter 2025 guidance indicates tightening budgets from U.S. federal agencies, which is expected to negatively impact subscription revenues [1] Subscription Revenue Guidance - ServiceNow has raised its 2025 subscription revenue guidance to between $12.835 billion and $12.845 billion, reflecting a 20% growth on a non-GAAP constant currency basis and 20.5% on a reported basis compared to 2024 [2] - This growth rate is slower than the 23% subscription revenue growth rate achieved in 2024 [2] Valuation and Performance - NOW shares are currently considered overvalued, with a Value Score of F, trading at a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 9.77X compared to the broader sector's 7.42X [5] - The shares are trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [8] AI and Partnerships - ServiceNow's AI products are projected to exceed $0.5 billion in Annual Contract Value (ACV) by 2025, with a target of reaching $1 billion by 2026 [11] - The company has expanded its partner base, including collaborations with NVIDIA and Microsoft, to enhance its AI capabilities and enterprise traction [12][13] Acquisitions - ServiceNow has been actively expanding its portfolio through acquisitions, including Logik.io, data.world, and Moveworks, which enhance its AI and workflow capabilities [16] - The acquisition of Veza strengthens its security and risk management offerings, while the $7.75 billion acquisition of Armis aims to bolster its cyber exposure management capabilities [17] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NOW's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is 87 cents per share, indicating a 19.2% growth compared to the previous year [18] - The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is $3.46 per share, suggesting a 24.5% growth over 2024 [18] - For 2026, the earnings estimate is projected at $4.04, reflecting a 16.6% growth over the 2025 estimate [19] Conclusion - ServiceNow's acquisition-driven portfolio expansion, increasing workflow adoption, and strong partner relationships are expected to enhance top-line growth in 2026 [20] - However, the challenging macroeconomic environment and high valuation remain concerns [20]