中国经济有强力支撑渣打仍然超配中国股票

Core Insights - Standard Chartered Bank's Wealth Solutions Division released the "2026 Global Market Outlook" report, highlighting the theme "Floating Risks? Diversified Layout!" The report indicates that global markets are at a critical turning point, with geopolitical conflicts and the AI bubble being significant concerns. The structural support for the US dollar is expected to gradually weaken, while the resilience and reform dividends of the Asian economy are becoming increasingly prominent [1] Group 1 - The report anticipates that risk assets will outperform in 2026, although there will be more pronounced differentiation in the market. Investors are encouraged to diversify across a broader range of asset classes to maintain stability amid uncertainty and changing dynamics [1] - In terms of core allocations, Standard Chartered recommends overweighting US, Indian, and Chinese stocks, emerging market debt, and gold. Chinese stocks are expected to benefit from improved corporate governance and supportive policies for technology and innovation [1] Group 2 - Standard Chartered expects China to potentially implement more decisive and targeted stimulus measures by 2026, particularly focusing on advancing technology investments to enhance self-sufficiency and productivity [2] - In the bond market, Standard Chartered views global bonds as core holdings, favoring government bonds over corporate bonds due to the attractive nominal yields of government debt. The institution is overweight on emerging market USD government bonds and local currency government bonds, benefiting from moderate inflation, dovish monetary policy, improved fiscal conditions, and expectations of a weaker dollar [2] Group 3 - For the foreign exchange market, Standard Chartered anticipates that the US Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious stance on easing policies in the short term, supported by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical risks. However, over the next 12 months, as the Fed may shift towards easing and other major central banks approach the end of their rate hike cycles, the structural support for the dollar is expected to weaken [2] - Regarding gold, Standard Chartered maintains an overweight position, with target prices of $4,350 per ounce in 3 months and $4,800 per ounce in 12 months. Continuous demand from emerging market central banks and a favorable macro environment are expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [3]