Waters-Becton Dickinson Deal May Deliver Bigger Gains Than Expected: Analyst

Core Investment Thesis - The merger between Becton, Dickinson and Company and Waters Corporation is expected to create a strong strategic fit with greater synergy upside than initially anticipated by the market, leading to an estimated EPS accretion of approximately $0.10 in 2026, increasing to around $2.70 by 2028 [2] Market Position and Recovery - Waters Corporation holds a leading position in the quality assurance and control market, with core end markets expected to improve year-over-year for the first time since pre-COVID [3] - Following the announcement of the merger, Waters shares experienced a decline of about 20% due to investor concerns regarding integration risks and changes to the financial profile [3] Stock Performance and Investor Confidence - The stock has rebounded, supported by a macro-driven recovery in tools, and investor confidence has improved as management clarified synergy targets and strategic fit [4] - Analyst projections indicate an EPS of $15.55 in 2027, which could rise to $17.18 once the merger is finalized [4] Growth Potential of the New Company - The new entity is expected to achieve above-group growth, margins, and return on invested capital (ROIC), with an estimated 20% upside by the end of 2026 based on a multiple of 26 times its 2027 post-merger EPS target [5] - The merger is seen as strategically advantageous, with historical precedents of successful large M&A deals in the life sciences sector supporting this outlook [5] Synergy Expectations - The target for total EBITDA synergies of $345 million by year five is considered conservative, based on successful past acquisitions such as Thermo Fisher Scientific's acquisition of Life Technologies and Merck's acquisition of Sigma-Aldrich [6] - At the time of publication, Waters shares were trading at $399.75, reflecting a 1.21% increase [6]