Venezuela bonds are the hottest trade on Wall Street this week. But there are big risks from here

Group 1: Political Developments - The political landscape in Venezuela has shifted significantly with the swearing-in of Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as the interim president following the removal of President Nicolas Maduro by the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has changed its policy towards Venezuela, which may facilitate a potential restructuring of the nation's debt [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Prices of Venezuela's benchmark notes due in October 2026 have surged to approximately 43 cents on the dollar, more than doubling since August, indicating a reassessment of recovery prospects by traders [2] - Investors are optimistic about a faster-than-expected political transition and clearer paths to asset recovery, which could unlock value that has been stagnant for nearly a decade [3] Group 3: Investment Implications - Fidelity Investments and T. Rowe Price are reported to hold significant amounts of Venezuela's defaulted bonds, suggesting institutional interest in the potential recovery of these assets [3] - The extraction of Venezuela's oil reserves is seen as crucial for improving the country's GDP and, consequently, its ability to pay bondholders [5]