2026年我国绿色氢氨醇产业发展十大趋势

Core Viewpoint - The hydrogen energy industry in China is experiencing significant growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with expectations for a transition to large-scale commercial development in 2026 as the "15th Five-Year Plan" begins. The China Hydrogen Energy Promotion Association has outlined ten key trends for the development of the green hydrogen and ammonia industry in 2026 [1]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The implementation of a dual control system for carbon emissions is expected to enhance the certainty of the hydrogen industry, with 2026 anticipated to be the first year of this system focusing on intensity control [2]. - A carbon footprint accounting system for green hydrogen and ammonia is projected to be established by 2026, facilitating the integration of these products into the national carbon market and promoting the quantification of environmental and economic values [3]. - Targeted policy support is expected to drive orderly development in the hydrogen industry, focusing on key areas such as direct hydrogen production from renewable energy and the construction of hydrogen transport networks [4]. Group 2: Industry Structure and Collaboration - The industry is expected to break down spatial barriers and create a unified national market, promoting regional collaboration and differentiated development based on local resource endowments [5]. - The hydrogen industry is entering a deep adjustment phase, shifting from policy-driven growth to market-driven development, with a focus on value creation and rational investment [6]. Group 3: Capacity and Infrastructure Development - By 2026, the cumulative production capacity of green hydrogen and ammonia projects in China is expected to exceed 500,000 tons per year, supported by the completion of multiple large-scale demonstration projects [7]. - The construction of hydrogen storage and transportation systems is anticipated to accelerate, with significant advancements in hydrogen transport technologies and potential reforms in land use for hydrogen stations [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Trends - The transportation sector is poised for significant advancements, with expectations for the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to reach 50,000 by the end of 2026, particularly in economically robust regions [9]. - The focus in the hydrogen equipment sector is shifting from scale expansion to quality, with an emphasis on performance and reliability improvements in core technologies [10]. Group 5: Global Engagement - China's hydrogen industry is expected to enhance its global presence, transitioning from equipment export to comprehensive solutions including engineering contracts and joint ventures, while actively participating in international standard-setting [10].