QBTS, RGTI Beat NVDA in 2025: Can Quantum Win Again in 2026?

Core Insights - Investor optimism towards quantum computing is at a new high as of 2026, driven by technological advancements and strong stock performance in 2025 [1][5] - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) saw a remarkable 211% increase in share price in 2025, while Rigetti Computing (RGTI) experienced a 45% gain, both outperforming NVIDIA's 38.8% increase [1][2][9] - The global quantum computing market is expected to grow from approximately $0.8 billion in 2025 to around $1.08 billion in 2026, indicating a robust CAGR of about 35% over the next decade [6][7] Company Performance - D-Wave Quantum reported a 100% year-over-year revenue growth and a 156% increase in gross profit, ending Q3 2025 with over $836 million in cash [9][12] - Rigetti Computing achieved 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity and increased cash resources to approximately $575 million, supporting its R&D and commercialization efforts [9][15] - Both companies are expected to see significant earnings and revenue growth in 2026, with D-Wave projected to grow earnings by 7% and revenue by 61.1%, while Rigetti is expected to see earnings growth of 74.3% and revenue growth of 197.6% [13][16] Market Trends - The quantum computing market is anticipated to witness a CAGR approaching 41.8% through 2030, driven by hardware deployments and expanding software ecosystems [7] - Major technology platforms like IBM and Google are making significant advancements in quantum hardware, which is crucial for the sector's growth [8][10] - The involvement of quantum enablers such as Intel and NVIDIA is increasing, providing essential infrastructure for the integration of quantum systems into practical applications [10][11]