XRP ETFs Start 2026 With $1.3B: Can Institutional Demand Push Price to $4 by Year-End?

Core Insights - XRP ETFs have achieved significant institutional adoption, accumulating $1.3 billion in just 50 days since their launch, making XRP the second-fastest crypto ETF to reach this milestone after Bitcoin [1][5] - Despite the strong institutional inflows, XRP's price remains around $2.00, indicating a disconnect between institutional demand and retail market behavior [2][8] - The question arises whether institutional demand can drive XRP's price from $2.00 to $4.00, requiring sustained momentum and favorable macro conditions [3] Institutional Adoption - XRP ETFs saw $483 million in inflows in December alone, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin and Ethereum, which experienced outflows of $1.09 billion and $564 million, respectively [2][5] - The consistency of inflows is notable, with 43 consecutive trading days of net positive inflows before the first zero-inflow day on December 26, indicating institutional accumulation rather than retail speculation [6][8] - The involvement of reputable issuers like Canary Capital, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton suggests confidence in XRP's regulatory clarity following Ripple's SEC settlement [7] Price Dynamics - Despite record institutional buying, XRP's price dropped 15% in December, from $2.35 to $1.77, before recovering to around $2.00 [8] - This price drop highlights the classic timing gap between retail and institutional investors, where retail sold off while institutions continued to accumulate [8] - The eventual closing of the gap typically occurs when retail supply is exhausted and institutions control a larger share of the market, potentially leading to sharp price rallies [8]