What Archer Aviation Needs to Prove in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Archer Aviation has positioned itself for 2025, but 2026 will be critical for demonstrating its ability to convert testing and partnerships into tangible results and economic viability [1][2]. Certification Progress - By 2026, Archer must transition from merely reporting progress in the FAA certification process to achieving definitive milestones such as regulator approvals and conformity confirmations [3][4]. - The certification process is complex and delays can significantly impact Archer's market perception, necessitating clear progress to avoid being seen as a trailing contender [4]. Manufacturing Capability - Archer needs to prove that its Midnight aircraft can be manufactured reliably and predictably, not just flown successfully [6][8]. - Demonstrating a consistent production cadence and minimizing surprises in manufacturing will be crucial for investor confidence [7][8]. Partnership Economics - The partnerships Archer has formed must begin to yield economic benefits, moving beyond mere agreements to tangible outcomes such as aircraft deliveries and early revenue visibility [9][10]. - Investors will be looking for evidence that these partnerships translate into real customer demand and financial returns [10]. Capital Efficiency - Archer enters 2026 with a strong cash position, but the focus will shift to how effectively it utilizes its capital to achieve milestones [11][12]. - Capital raises in 2026 will be viewed in context; raising funds after demonstrating execution wins will be seen positively, while raising funds to buy time may raise concerns [12]. Investor Expectations - 2026 is pivotal for Archer to shift from being perceived as a speculative venture to a credible aviation business [13]. - Success in certification, manufacturing, partnership conversion, and capital discipline could lead to a significant revaluation of Archer's stock [13][14]. - Failure to meet these expectations may lead to diminished investor patience as competition in the flying taxi market intensifies [14].