财经观察：泰国越南“GDP竞赛”，牵动东南亚经济格局

Economic Performance - Vietnam's GDP growth in Q4 was 8.46%, with an annual growth rate of 8.02%, positioning it to potentially surpass Thailand's nominal GDP by 2026 [1][3] - The Vietnamese government has ample monetary policy space, and with ongoing market reforms, it aims for double-digit growth from 2026 to 2030 [3][4] - Vietnam's nominal GDP could reach $500 billion by 2026 or 2027, with per capita GDP exceeding $5,000, approaching Indonesia's economic level [3][4] Comparative Analysis with Thailand - Thailand's economic growth is hindered by political instability, high household debt, and slow tourism recovery, with a projected GDP growth of only 1.5% in 2026 [4][5] - Thailand has a more advanced industrial development, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors, but faces significant challenges that may affect its economic performance [5][6] - Vietnam's rapid growth is attributed to its unique position in the global manufacturing chain and a stable political environment, which contrasts with Thailand's struggles [6][7] Foreign Investment and Trade - Vietnam's foreign direct investment (FDI) reached approximately $23.6 billion in 2025, with manufacturing attracting the majority of this investment [10] - The country has seen a significant increase in exports of computers, electronics, and components, which accounted for 22.3% of total exports in the first ten months of 2025 [8][9] - Vietnam's trade relationships, particularly with China, are strengthening, indicating a growing integration into the global supply chain [8][9] Infrastructure and Economic Drivers - Infrastructure development is a core driver of Vietnam's economic growth, with public investment expected to increase by about 26% in 2026 [6] - The tourism sector has rebounded, with Vietnam receiving approximately 21.2 million international visitors in 2025, marking a 20.4% increase [7] - The country's young population and ongoing administrative reforms are contributing to a favorable business environment and economic dynamism [7][8]