Core Viewpoint - Company is the largest global provider of Autonomous Mobile Robot (AMR) solutions for warehousing, addressing inefficiencies, high costs, and low flexibility in traditional warehousing [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Company has a high technical barrier with integrated hardware and software solutions, leading to strong customer loyalty [1] - Company has a significant market presence with a 9% market share in 2024 and has ranked first globally for six consecutive years, serving over 65 Fortune 500 clients [1] - Approximately 80% of the company's revenue comes from markets outside mainland China, where competition is lower and profit margins are higher [1] Group 2: AMR Solution Growth Potential - AMR solutions are expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of over 33% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 162 billion RMB by 2029 [2] - The penetration rate of AMR solutions in the overall warehousing automation market is expected to increase from 8.2% in 2024 to 20.2% by 2029 [2] Group 3: Financial Projections and Valuation - Company anticipates a CAGR of over 25% in order volume from 2022 to 2024, with revenue growth projections of 32.2%, 31.9%, and 30.4% for 2025 to 2027 [3] - The company is expected to achieve adjusted profitability in the fiscal year 2025, with net profits projected at -0.1 million, 2.8 million, and 6.0 million RMB for 2025 to 2027 [3] - A target price of 35 HKD is set, based on a valuation of 10.0x P/S for FY26E, aligning with the average valuation levels of comparable companies in the AMR sector [3]
招商证券:2026年将实现规模化盈利 首予极智嘉(02590)“增持”评级 目标价35港元