Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-06 23:23Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector is expected to achieve a market value breakthrough in 2025, but the overall growth rate is slowing and underperforming compared to the broader market, with significant individual stock differentiation [1][7]. Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the Wind Banking Index reached 7180.68 points, with an annual growth of 12.04%, lower than the previous year's 43.56%. The total market value of the sector at year-end was 15.71 trillion yuan, an increase of over 15% from the beginning of the year, having briefly surpassed 16 trillion yuan [1][7]. - The banking sector exhibited a clear phase differentiation throughout the year, with a mild increase in Q1, a significant rise in Q2, a deep correction in Q3, and a recovery in Q4 [2][8]. Individual Stock Performance - In 2025, 35 out of 42 A-share listed banks saw their stock prices rise, accounting for over 83%. Among the six banks with over 20% growth, Agricultural Bank led with a 52.66% increase, followed by Xiamen Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Chongqing Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and Ningbo Bank with growth rates ranging from 20.68% to 35.78% [3][9]. - Conversely, seven banks experienced declines, with Huaxia Bank at the bottom with a 9.82% drop, and Zhengzhou Bank, Beijing Bank, and China Everbright Bank all declining by over 5% [3][9]. Future Outlook - Multiple brokerage firms predict an improvement in revenue and profit growth for listed banks in 2026, with expected revenue growth rates of +2.5% and +3.6% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, and net profit growth rates of +1.9% and +2.6% [4][10]. - The improvement in revenue and profit growth is attributed to several factors, including a reduction in net interest margin pressure, a shift towards quality in credit issuance, and a stabilization in fee income growth [4][10]. Investment Strategy - In light of the different characteristics of new inflows, the equity market in 2025 is characterized by increased stable return strategy products, enhanced structural trends, and greater individual stock volatility. For 2026, it is recommended to prioritize stable stocks and adopt a bottom-fishing strategy, while also considering elastic stocks for rotation trading [6][12].