泰国越南“GDP竞赛”，牵动东南亚经济格局

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's GDP is expected to surpass Thailand's by 2026, driven by public investment and economic reforms, while Thailand faces economic challenges such as slow growth and debt issues [1][2]. Economic Performance - Vietnam's GDP growth for Q4 was 8.46%, with an annual growth rate of 8.02%, making it one of the fastest-growing economies globally [1][2]. - The Vietnamese government has ample monetary policy space, and with ongoing reforms, it aims for double-digit growth from 2026 to 2030 [1][2]. Comparative Analysis - Thailand's GDP growth is projected to be only 1.5% in 2026, down from previous years, due to high household debt and slow tourism recovery [3]. - Thailand's industrial development, particularly in automotive and semiconductor sectors, is currently more advanced than Vietnam's, but political instability is hindering its economic performance [4]. Investment and Infrastructure - Public infrastructure investment in Vietnam is expected to grow by 26% in 2026, contributing significantly to economic growth [5]. - Vietnam welcomed a record 21.2 million international tourists in 2025, enhancing its tourism sector's global standing [5]. Factors Driving Growth - Vietnam's stable political environment, demographic advantages, and integration into the global economy are key factors behind its economic growth [6][7]. - The electronics sector, particularly exports of computers and components, has seen significant growth, contributing over half of Vietnam's export increase [6][7]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam reached approximately $23.6 billion in 2025, with manufacturing attracting the majority of this investment [9]. - Companies are reassessing their investment strategies in Southeast Asia, with some shifting focus to Vietnam due to its favorable conditions [8][9].