Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-07 00:09Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate is experiencing a strong increase due to tightening supply expectations, with significant price jumps observed in early January 2025, reaching a record high of 137,940 yuan/ton [1]. Group 1: Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices have surged from over 80,000 yuan/ton to 137,940 yuan/ton within two months, driven primarily by increased demand for energy storage [1]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 132,250 yuan/ton on January 6, 2025, marking a 7,900 yuan increase from January 5 [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand for lithium carbonate is robust, with a notable "rush to buy" observed in the market, as inventory levels have been rapidly depleting [1]. - The sales of lithium carbonate have been recovering since the second half of 2025, with a significant portion of customers relying on long-term contracts due to high demand [1]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Supply constraints are expected to persist, with the lithium market transitioning from oversupply to a tighter balance, influenced by factors such as the uncertain resumption of lithium mining in Jiangxi and geopolitical instability [1]. - The inventory of lithium carbonate has been declining for 19 consecutive weeks, indicating a tightening supply situation [1]. Group 4: Policy Support - Government policies, including subsidies for electric vehicle replacements and expanding energy storage compensation standards, are expected to bolster long-term demand for lithium carbonate [1]. - The domestic policy for electric vehicle trade-ins continues to provide significant financial incentives, enhancing market confidence [1]. Group 5: Future Projections - Global demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 202,000 tons by 2026, with a 32% year-on-year increase, driven by a surge in energy storage battery demand [1]. - Supply growth is anticipated to be slower due to previous price weaknesses affecting project timelines, with domestic production expected to increase by approximately 59% in 2026 [1]. Group 6: M&A Activity - The rising lithium carbonate market has sparked increased merger and acquisition activity within the industry, with companies like Salt Lake Co. and Shengxin Lithium Energy making significant investments in lithium resources [1]. - Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkang Salt Lake for over 4.6 billion yuan, which will significantly boost its lithium carbonate production capacity [1].