中信证券：看好氧化锆的投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce's strengthened export controls on dual-use items to Japan may impact Japanese zirconia manufacturers, while Chinese zirconia powder and ceramic block manufacturers are expected to benefit and expand their overseas market share [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The global zirconia market is projected to reach 4.23 billion yuan by 2025, with Japanese companies such as DKKK, Tosoh, and Showa Denko holding significant market positions [1] - DKKK and Tosoh are directly or indirectly involved in military products, making them likely to be affected by the export controls, which could hinder their import of Chinese yttrium [1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - China's yttrium production accounts for over 93% of the global supply, and due to export controls in the first half of 2025, yttrium prices surged by up to 50 times from early 2025 to the end of November 2025 [1] - The potential impact of the current export controls is expected to significantly disrupt the operations of Japanese zirconia manufacturers [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - If Japanese manufacturers face production disruptions due to export controls, it will directly benefit Chinese zirconia powder manufacturers, allowing them to accelerate their international expansion [1] - The customers of Japanese zirconia manufacturers will also be affected, creating opportunities for corresponding Chinese counterparts to gain market share [1]