UPS vs. FedEx: The Better Long-Term Play?

Core Viewpoint - UPS has a promising long-term growth strategy but faces questions regarding its near-term capital allocation strategy [1] Group 1: Growth Strategy - Under CEO Carol Tomé, UPS is focusing on targeted end markets and deliveries rather than merely increasing delivery volume [2] - The strategy includes a plan to voluntarily reduce low- or negative-margin Amazon deliveries by 50% from early 2025 to mid-2026 [3] - UPS aims to grow in specific markets such as small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), healthcare, and business-to-business e-commerce, while investing in technology to enhance productivity [5] Group 2: Financial Performance and Risks - UPS has missed its initial full-year guidance for three consecutive years due to weaker-than-expected U.S. delivery volumes [6] - The company is facing deteriorating trading conditions, with analysts suggesting it may not generate sufficient free cash flow to cover its nearly $5.5 billion dividend payout [7] - The impact of Trump tariffs on SMBs has not fully materialized, potentially affecting UPS's performance [7] Group 3: Market Position - Despite UPS's long-term strategy being sound, there are near-term risks associated with earnings and limited dividend coverage [8] - FedEx has outperformed UPS in stock price performance, indicating competitive pressures in the package delivery market [1]