基本面偏弱 铁矿石后市高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a strong upward trend since mid-December, with both futures and spot prices reaching new highs, supported by various market factors [1][5]. Group 1: Price Trends - Iron ore futures prices have broken through a five-month resistance level, reaching a peak of 105.80 USD/ton in the Platts iron ore price index [1]. - The spot price remains strong, with port transaction volumes increasing significantly [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Despite some positive indicators, the overall demand for iron ore remains weak, with steel mills' profitability still low; only 38.10% of surveyed steel mills are currently profitable [3]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to drive a temporary increase in demand as steel mills prepare for inventory replenishment, typically increasing by about 16.3 million tons in the four weeks leading up to the holiday [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Domestic port arrivals of iron ore have increased, with a total of 28.247 million tons reported, while global shipments remain high despite a recent weekly decline [4]. - Port inventories have reached a historical high of 167.218 million tons, indicating significant supply pressure in the market [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market fundamentals for iron ore remain weak, with limited upward momentum in prices expected due to ongoing supply pressures and constrained demand [5].