Don't Expect Venezuelan Oil to Mean Lower Gas Prices in the U.S., Experts Say

Core Insights - Gas prices have been declining for years, yet the average American still pays more than pre-pandemic levels, with current prices around $2.82 per gallon, down from $3.07 a year ago [3][11] - The potential overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is unlikely to significantly impact U.S. gas prices in the near term [1][10] Oil Production and Market Impact - Venezuela holds nearly 20% of the world's known oil reserves, but its oil production has drastically decreased from nearly 3.5 million barrels per day in 1997 to an average of 900,000 barrels per day in 2024 due to underinvestment, corruption, and U.S. sanctions [2] - Experts indicate that the contraction of Venezuela's oil output is a primary reason why recent events will not affect gas prices soon [3][10] - A resolution between the U.S. and Venezuela could potentially return 200,000 barrels of oil to the global market, but the immediate impact on oil supply is expected to be limited [6] Future Projections and Challenges - Experts suggest that even under optimistic scenarios, it could take years for Venezuela to increase oil output significantly, with estimates that it could double production in one to two years under favorable conditions [9] - Repairing Venezuela's oil infrastructure is projected to take years and cost tens of billions of dollars, complicating the economic feasibility of such investments [8] - Despite the challenges, experts believe that global oil markets can withstand a worst-case scenario involving a total collapse of Venezuelan production [7] Consumer Impact and Expectations - Fuel prices are a significant driver of inflation, affecting consumer perceptions and costs of goods [5] - GasBuddy forecasts that the national average price of gas may fall to $2.97 per gallon this year, the lowest since 2020, due to various factors including the unwinding of post-pandemic market distortions and more stable supply chains [11]