TINCI(SZ:002709) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-07 01:21Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a price increase driven by supply constraints and emerging demand, with significant contributions from policy guidance and industry self-discipline [6][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF surged over 3.3% on January 6, reaching a new high not seen in 22 years [3]. - The chemical ETF's total size has increased to 3.893 billion yuan, marking a historical peak since its inception in August 2025 [4]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - Wanhua Chemical plans to continuously raise global prices for core products like MDI/TDI starting December 2025, aligning with international giants such as BASF and Dow [6]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes saw significant quarterly increases of 185.71% and 92.41%, respectively, in Q4 2025, leading to a sharp recovery in profitability for related companies [7]. Group 3: Industry Fundamentals - After approximately three and a half years of a downturn, the chemical industry is witnessing a peak in capital expenditure, with supply expansion slowing down [6]. - Policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and stabilizing prices are accelerating profit recovery in the sector [6]. Group 4: Demand Factors - Expectations of a global interest rate cut are boosting traditional demand, while emerging fields such as new energy, energy storage, and AI are providing new growth momentum [6]. Group 5: Company Performance - Tianqi Materials, a major component of the chemical ETF, forecasts a net profit of 1.1 to 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 127.31% to 230.63% [6]. - The company's Q4 performance is expected to be particularly strong, with a projected net profit of approximately 929 million yuan, a 508% increase compared to Q3 [6].