在共识与非共识之间：操昭煦的医药选股逻辑与国际化布局

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is undergoing subtle changes driven by a "fourfold resonance" of policy, performance, research, and international expansion, despite a low market sentiment and frequent funding disruptions [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The newly launched Hongde Pharmaceutical Selected Mixed Fund, managed by Cao Zhaoxu, aims to explore undervalued areas within the pharmaceutical sector and reassess the future potential of innovative drugs [1] - Cao Zhaoxu emphasizes the importance of a scientific background in investment, which aids in understanding the pharmaceutical knowledge system and identifying opportunities hidden within the industry [2] - The investment philosophy has evolved from a focus on growth to recognizing the cyclical nature of the pharmaceutical industry, acknowledging that each sector has its own lifecycle [3] Group 2: Stock Selection Framework - Cao Zhaoxu employs a layered company analysis method, categorizing companies based on growth potential, market space, business model, and management culture, akin to a barrel model where any weak link can limit investment decisions [5] - The decision-making process involves balancing growth, certainty, and valuation, with a focus on assessing risk through discussions with differing viewpoints [5] - The analytical framework is dynamic, adapting to the fast-evolving pharmaceutical landscape, with a shift in focus expected towards overseas clinical advancement capabilities [5] Group 3: Internationalization Focus - The fund's strategy prioritizes companies with internationalization capabilities, reflecting a trend that is expected to dominate pharmaceutical investments over the next decade [7] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are seen to have significant advantages due to the large population and high-quality clinical resources, which are crucial for drug development [7] - The investment focus for 2026 will remain on innovative drugs with overseas clinical capabilities, while medical device companies with substantial overseas revenue are also highlighted as potential growth areas [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, is considered attractive following recent corrections, suggesting a favorable time for investment [7] - The long-term trend indicates that healthcare spending as a percentage of GDP in China is expected to rise, potentially leading to higher growth rates in the pharmaceutical industry compared to nominal GDP [8] - Upcoming technological breakthroughs, such as multi-cancer early detection based on gene sequencing, are anticipated to create new medical demands and drive long-term growth in the pharmaceutical sector [8]